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Ann Thorac Surg 2007;84:528-536
© 2007 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons
a Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, The Cardiothoracic Centre-Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
b Department of Clinical Governance, The Cardiothoracic Centre-Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
Accepted for publication April 2, 2007.
* Address correspondence to Mr Grayson, Clinical Governance Department, The Cardiothoracic Centre-Liverpool, Thomas Drive, Liverpool, L14 3PE, United Kingdom (Email: tony.grayson{at}ctc.nhs.uk).
Presented at the Poster Session of the Forty-third Annual Meeting of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons, San Diego, CA, Jan 29–31, 2007.
Background: The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate risk prediction model for prolonged ventilation after adult cardiac surgery.
Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on 12,662 consecutive patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery between April 1997 and March 2005. Data were randomly split into a development dataset (n = 6,000) and a validation dataset (n = 6,662). A multivariate logistic regression analysis was undertaken using a forward stepwise technique to identify independent risk factors for prolonged ventilation (defined as ventilation greater than 48 hours). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic were calculated to assess the performance and calibration of the model, respectively. Patients were split into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups based on their predicted probability of prolonged ventilation.
Results: Three hundred thirty-three patients had prolonged ventilation (5.5%). Independent variables, identified with prolonged ventilation, are shown with relevant coefficient values and p values as follows: (1) age 65 to 75 years, 0.7831, p < 0.001; (2) age 75 to 80 years, 1.5605, p < 0.001; (3) age greater than 80 years, 1.7115, p < 0.001; (4) forced expiratory volume less than 70% predicted, 0.3707, p = 0.013; (5) current smoker, 0.5315, p = 0.001; (6) serum creatinine 125 to 175 µmol/L, 0.6371, p < 0.001; (7) serum creatinine greater than175 µmol/L, 1.3817, p < 0.001; (8) peripheral vascular disease, 0.6212, p < 0.001; (9) ejection fraction less than 0.30, 0.7839, p < 0.001; (10) myocardial infraction less than 90 days, 0.7415, p < 0.001; (11) preoperative ventilation, 1.3540, p = 0.004; (12) prior cardiac surgery, 0.8946, p < 0.001; (13) urgent surgery, 0.4414, p = 0.004; (14) emergency surgery, 0.7421, p = 0.005; (15) mitral valve surgery, 0.7715, p < 0.001; (16) aortic surgery, 1.7043, p < 0.001; and (17) use of cardiopulmonary bypass, 0.4052, p = 0.025; intercept, –4.7666. The ROC curve for the predicted probability of prolonged ventilation was 0.79, indicating a good discrimination power. The prediction equation was well-calibrated, predicting well at all levels of risk. A simplified additive scoring system was also developed. In the validation dataset, 5.1% of patients had prolonged ventilation compared with 5.4% expected. The ROC curve for the validation dataset was 0.75.
Conclusions: We developed a contemporaneous multivariate prediction model for prolonged ventilation after cardiac surgery. This tool can be used in day-to-day practice to calculate patient-specific risk by the logistic equation or a simple scoring system with an equivalent predicted risk.
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