ATS
HOME HELP FEEDBACK SUBSCRIPTIONS ARCHIVE SEARCH TABLE OF CONTENTS
QUICK SEARCH:   [advanced]


     

This Article
Right arrow Full Text
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Right arrow Citation Map
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to Personal Folders
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrow Author home page(s):
Edward V. Bennett
Russell E. Carlson
Alfred T. Culliford
Jeffrey P. Gold
Robert S.D. Higgins
Craig R. Smith
Robert H. Jones
Right arrow Permission Requests
Citing Articles
Right arrow Citing Articles via HighWire
Right arrow Citing Articles via Google Scholar
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Hannan, E. L.
Right arrow Articles by Jones, R. H.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by Hannan, E. L.
Right arrow Articles by Jones, R. H.
Related Collections
Right arrow Professional affairs
Right arrowRelated Article

Ann Thorac Surg 2007;83:921-929
© 2007 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons

Original Articles: Cardiovascular

Risk Index for Predicting In-Hospital Mortality for Cardiac Valve Surgery

Edward L. Hannan, PhDa,*, Chuntao Wu, MD, PhDa, Edward V. Bennett, MDb, Russell E. Carlson, MDc, Alfred T. Culliford, MDd, Jeffrey P. Gold, MDe, Robert S.D. Higgins, MDf, Craig R. Smith, MDg, Robert H. Jones, MDh

a University at Albany, State University of New York, New York, New York
b St. Peter’s Hospital, Albany, New York, New York
c Mercy Hospital, Buffalo, New York, New York
d New York University Medical Center, New York, New York
e Medical University of Ohio, Toledo, Ohio
f Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois
g Columbia-Presbyterian Medical Center, New York, New York
h Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina

Accepted for publication September 15, 2006.

* Address correspondence to Dr Hannan, State University of New York at Albany, Department of Health Policy, Management, and Behavior, One University Place, Rensselaer, NY 12144 (Email: elh03{at}health.state.ny.us).

Background: Numerous studies have developed a "severity score" or "risk index" for short-term mortality associated with coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery, but very few studies have developed risk indices derived from statistical models to predict outcomes for cardiac valve replacement patients.

Methods: Data from New York’s Cardiac Surgery Reporting System in 2001 to 2003 were used to develop statistical models that predict mortality for valve surgery and for valve/CABG surgery. These models were used to develop risk indices based on the type of valve surgery performed and several patient risk factors. The fit of each index was tested by examining the correspondence of expected and observed mortality rates for various risk score ranges using New York data between 1998 and 2000.

Results: There were a total of 11 risk factors for valve patients without CABG surgery and 12 risk factors for patients with both valve and CABG surgery. Risk factors represented measures of demographics, type of valve surgery, previous open heart surgery, ventricular function, hemodynamic state, and various comorbidities. Possible variable scores ranged from 0 to 7 in the isolated valve model and 0 to 5 in the valve/CABG model. The highest overall risk scores possible for the two models were 49 for isolated valve surgery and 35 for valve/CABG surgery, and the highest scores observed for any patient were 32 and 26, respectively.

Conclusions: These valve surgery risk indices will enable providers to estimate patients’ short-term mortality risk and allow for comparisons of valve surgery outcomes with other regions.


Related Article

Invited commentary

Ann. Thorac. Surg. 83: 930-930. [Full Text]



This article has been cited by other articles:


Home page
 HeartHome page
M. van Gameren, N. Piazza, A. J J C Bogers, J. J M Takkenberg, and A P. Kappetein
How to assess risks of valve surgery: quality, implementation and future of risk models
Heart, December 1, 2009; 95(23): 1958 - 1963.
[Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 Eur. J. Cardiothorac. Surg.Home page
E. Manasse
Cooks and recipes
Eur. J. Cardiothorac. Surg., November 1, 2009; 36(5): 787 - 790.
[Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 Ann. Thorac. Surg.Home page
S. M. O'Brien, D. M. Shahian, G. Filardo, V. A. Ferraris, C. K. Haan, J. B. Rich, S.-L. T. Normand, E. R. DeLong, C. M. Shewan, R. S. Dokholyan, et al.
The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 2--isolated valve surgery.
Ann. Thorac. Surg., July 1, 2009; 88(1 Suppl): S23 - S42.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 Ann. Thorac. Surg.Home page
D. M. Shahian, S. M. O'Brien, G. Filardo, V. A. Ferraris, C. K. Haan, J. B. Rich, S.-L. T. Normand, E. R. DeLong, C. M. Shewan, R. S. Dokholyan, et al.
The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 3--valve plus coronary artery bypass grafting surgery.
Ann. Thorac. Surg., July 1, 2009; 88(1 Suppl): S43 - S62.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 J Am Coll CardiolHome page
S. H. Rahimtoola
The Year in Valvular Heart Disease
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., May 19, 2009; 53(20): 1894 - 1908.
[Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 J. Thorac. Cardiovasc. Surg.Home page
J. M. Brown, S. M. O'Brien, C. Wu, J. A. H. Sikora, B. P. Griffith, and J. S. Gammie
Isolated aortic valve replacement in North America comprising 108,687 patients in 10 years: changes in risks, valve types, and outcomes in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database.
J. Thorac. Cardiovasc. Surg., January 1, 2009; 137(1): 82 - 90.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 ESC Textbook of Cardiovascular MedicineHome page
A. Vahanian, B. Iung, L. Piérard, R. Dion, and J. Pepper
CHAPTER 21 Valvular Heart Disease
ESC Textbook of Cardiovascular Medicine, January 1, 2009; 2(1): med-9780199566990-chapter - med-9780199566990-chapter.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 J Am Coll Cardiol IntvHome page
J. G. Byrne, M. Leacche, D. E. Vaughan, and D. X. Zhao
Hybrid Cardiovascular Procedures
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol. Intv., October 1, 2008; 1(5): 459 - 468.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 J Am Coll CardiolHome page
R. H. Jones
The Year in Cardiovascular Surgery
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., April 29, 2008; 51(17): 1707 - 1718.
[Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 Ann. Thorac. Surg.Home page
M. van Gameren, A. P. Kappetein, E. W. Steyerberg, A. C. Venema, E. A.J. Berenschot, E. L. Hannan, A. J.J.C. Bogers, and J. J.M. Takkenberg
Do We Need Separate Risk Stratification Models for Hospital Mortality After Heart Valve Surgery?
Ann. Thorac. Surg., March 1, 2008; 85(3): 921 - 930.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 J Am Coll CardiolHome page
S. H. Rahimtoola
The Year in Valvular Heart Disease.
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., February 19, 2008; 51(7): 760 - 770.
[Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 J. Thorac. Cardiovasc. Surg.Home page
B. Marcheix, Y. Lamarche, C. Berry, A. Asgar, J.-C. Laborde, A. Basmadjian, A. Ducharme, A. Denault, R. Bonan, and R. Cartier
Surgical aspects of endovascular retrograde implantation of the aortic CoreValve bioprosthesis in high-risk older patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis.
J. Thorac. Cardiovasc. Surg., November 1, 2007; 134(5): 1150 - 1156.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Home page
 Ann. Thorac. Surg.Home page
F. H. Edwards
Invited commentary
Ann. Thorac. Surg., March 1, 2007; 83(3): 930 - 930.
[Full Text] [PDF]


HOME HELP FEEDBACK SUBSCRIPTIONS ARCHIVE SEARCH TABLE OF CONTENTS
ANN THORAC SURG ASIAN CARDIOVASC THORAC ANN EUR J CARDIOTHORAC SURG
J THORAC CARDIOVASC SURG ICVTS ALL CTSNet JOURNALS
Copyright © 2007 by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons.