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Ann Thorac Surg 2003;75:1856-1865
© 2003 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons


Original article: cardiovascular

The society of thoracic surgeons: 30-day operative mortality and morbidity risk models

A. Laurie W. Shroyer, PhDa*, Laura P. Coombs, PhDa, Eric D. Peterson, MDa, Mary C. Eiken, MSNa, Elizabeth R. DeLong, PhDa, Anita Chen, MSa, T. Bruce Ferguson, Jr, MDa, Frederick L. Grover, MDa, Fred H. Edwards, MDa,b,c,d,e

a Denver Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, and University of Colorado Health Sciences Center, Denver, Colorado, USA
b Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA
c The Society of Thoracic Surgeons, Chicago, Illinois, USA
d LSU Health Sciences Center, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
e University of Florida Health Sciences Center, Jacksonville, Florida, USA

* Address reprint requests to Dr Shroyer, Denver Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, 1055 Clermont St (112R), Denver, CO 80220, USA
e-mail: laurie.shroyer{at}med.va.gov

Presented at the Thirty-eighth Annual Meeting of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Jan 28–30, 2002.

BACKGROUND: Although 30day risk-adjusted operative mortality (ROM) has been used for quality assessment, it is not sufficient to describe the outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. Risk-adjusted major morbidity may differentially impact quality of care (as complications occur more frequently than death) and enhance a surgical team’s ability to assess their quality. This study identified the preoperative risk factors associated with several complications and a composite outcome (the presence of any major morbidity or 30-day operative mortality or both).

METHODS: For CABG procedures, the 1997 to 1999 Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) National Adult Cardiac Surgery Database was used to develop ROM and risk-adjusted morbidity (ROMB) models. Risk factors were selected using standard STS univariate screening and multivariate logistic regression approaches. Risk model performance was assessed. Across STS participating sites, the association of observed-to-expected (O/E) ratios for ROM and ROMB was evaluated.

RESULTS: The 30-day operative death and major complication rates for STS CABG procedures were 3.05% and 13.40%, respectively (503,478 CABG procedures), including stroke (1.63%), renal failure (3.53%), reoperation (5.17%), prolonged ventilation (5.96%), and sternal infection (0.63%). Risk models were developed (c-indexes for stroke [0.72], renal failure [0.76], reoperation [0.64], prolonged ventilation [0.75], sternal infection [0.66], and the composite endpoint [0.71]). Only a slight correlation was found, however, between ROMB and ROM indicators.

CONCLUSIONS: Used in combination, ROMB and ROM may provide the surgical team with additional information to evaluate the quality of their care as well as valuable insights to allow them to focus on areas for improvement.




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