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Ann Thorac Surg 2003;75:508-513
© 2003 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons

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Original article: cardiovascular

Estimating group mortality and paraplegia rates after thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysm repair

^a Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
^b The Methodist DeBakey Heart Center, Houston, Texas, USA

Accepted for publication August 21, 2002.

* Address reprint requests to Dr LeMaire, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, 6560 Fannin, Suite 1100, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
e-mail: slemaire{at}bcm.tmc.edu

BACKGROUND: Most clinical studies regarding thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysm (TAAA) surgery are retrospective comparisons involving heterogeneous groups of patients. Risk models that evaluate susceptibility bias enhance interpretation of these intergroup comparisons. The purpose of this analysis was to derive group risk models for mortality and paraplegia after TAAA repair.

METHODS: Data regarding 1,220 consecutive patients undergoing TAAA repair were analyzed via multiple logistic regression with stepwise model selection. Categorical preoperative risk factors that predicted 30-day mortality and paraplegia were used to develop risk models.

RESULTS: Fifty-eight patients (4.8%) died within 30 days and 56 patients (4.6%) developed paraplegia or paraparesis. Predictors of mortality were rupture, renal insufficiency, symptomatic aneurysms, and Crawford extent II repairs. Extent of repair and acute presentation were predictors of paraplegia. The derived risk models estimated mortality and paraplegia rates that correlated well with actual frequencies reported in other contemporary series (regression slopes = 0.87 and 1.06, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS: The derived risk models accurately estimate paraplegia and mortality rates in groups of patients. Prospective model validation will be required to confirm their accuracy.

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