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Ann Thorac Surg 2001;71:1885-1887
© 2001 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons

Original article: cardiovascular

Actuarial and actual analysis of surgical results: empirical validation

Gary L. Grunkemeier, PhDa, Richard P. Anderson, MDc, Albert Starr, MDb

a Medical Data Research Center, Providence Health System, Portland, Oregon, USA
b Providence Heart Institute, Providence Health System, Portland, Oregon, USA
c Department of Surgery, Virginia Mason Clinic, Seattle, Washington, USA

Accepted for publication February 12, 2001.

Address reprint requests to Dr Grunkemeier, 9155 SW Barnes Rd, Suite #33, Portland, OR 97225
e-mail: ggrunkemeier{at}providence.org

This report validates the use of the Kaplan-Meier (actuarial) method of computing survival curves by comparing 12-year estimates published in 1978 with current assessments. It also contrasts cumulative incidence curves, referred to as "actual" analysis in the cardiac-related literature with Kaplan-Meier curves for thromboembolism and demonstrates that with the former estimate the percentage of events that will actually occur.




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