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Ann Thorac Surg 1999;67:1968-1970
© 1999 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons
a Cardiothoracic Surgical Unit, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, United Kingdom
b Department of Radiology, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, United Kingdom
c School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
Address reprint requests to Mr Bonser, Cardiothoracic Surgical Unit, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TH, UK;
e-mail: address:r.s.bonser{at}bham.ac.uk
Presented at the Aortic Surgery Symposium VI, April 30–May 1, 1998, New York, NY.
Background. The expansion rate of thoracic aortic aneurysms may be an important and clinically relevant index of the risk of rupture. The aims of this study were to assess the validity of three published exponential equations that predict expansion rate in a separate sample population, and to calculate an expansion rate formula for this cohort of patients.
Methods. We studied 88 consecutive patients undergoing serial computed tomographic or magnetic resonance imaging scanning to monitor thoracic aortic aneurysm progression. In interval scans of at least 6 months, we measured minimum coronal aortic diameter at seven set levels and maximal diameter, yielding 780 segment-intervals.
Results. The linear expansion rate (mean 2.6 mm/year) increased with incremental aortic diameter (aortic diameter <40 mm: 2.0; 40–49 mm: 2.3; 50–59 mm: 3.6; 
60 mm: 5.6 mm/year; p < 0.01). Regression analysis showed close correlation between predicted and sample data, but there were significant differences between observed and expected measurements. The Yale formula underestimated growth by 0.8 mm, while Mt. Sinai and Osaka formulae overestimated actual change by 1.5 and 0.2 mm, respectively. The expansion rate derived from our population was: last diameter = initial diameter x e(0.00367 x time) (r = 0.617).
Conclusions. Although formulae derived from one thoracic aortic aneurysm sample population may not extrapolate exactly to others, there is close concordance of results for patient populations in three different continents.
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