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Ann Thorac Surg 1997;63:1635-1643
© 1997 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons

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Original Article: Cardiovascular

Coronary Artery Bypass Risk Prediction Using Neural Networks

MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, and Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Lahey Hitchcock Medical Center, Burlington, Massachusetts

Accepted for publication November 29, 1996.

Background. Neural networks are nonparametric, robust, pattern recognition techniques that can be used to model complex relationships.

Methods. The applicability of multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLP) to coronary artery bypass grafting risk prediction was assessed using The Society of Thoracic Surgeons database of 80,606 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting in 1993. The results of traditional logistic regression and Bayesian analysis were compared with single-layer (no hidden layer), two-layer (one hidden layer), and three-layer (two hidden layer) MLP neural networks. These networks were trained using stochastic gradient descent with early stopping. All prediction models used the same variables and were evaluated by training on 40,480 patients and cross-validation testing on a separate group of 40,126 patients. Techniques were also developed to calculate effective odds ratios for MLP networks and to generate confidence intervals for MLP risk predictions using an auxiliary "confidence MLP."

Results. Receiver operating characteristic curve areas for predicting mortality were approximately 76% for all classifiers, including neural networks. Calibration (accuracy of posterior probability prediction) was slightly better with a two-member committee classifier that averaged the outputs of a MLP network and a logistic regression model. Unlike the individual methods, the committee classifier did not overestimate or underestimate risk for high-risk patients.

Conclusions. A committee classifier combining the best neural network and logistic regression provided the best model calibration, but the receiver operating characteristic curve area was only 76% irrespective of which predictive model was used.

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