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The Annals of Thoracic Surgery, Vol 44, 180-185, Copyright © 1987 by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons

ARTICLES

Determinants of survival 10 to 14 years after coronary bypass: analysis of preoperative variables in 1,448 patients

GM Lawrie, GC Morris Jr, A Baron, J Norton and DH Glaeser

To determine which preoperative variables were most predictive of long- term survival after coronary bypass surgery, the status of 1,448 consecutive patients was determined 10 to 14 years after operation. All patients were operated on at least 10 years ago and follow-up at 10 years was 93.8% complete. The overall 14-year survival probabilities were: for one-vessel disease, 73.3%; for two-vessel disease, 45.9%; for three-vessel disease, 34.2%; and for left main coronary artery disease, 41.9%. Patients with good left ventricular function had an overall survival rate of 53.3%, and patients with poor ventricular function had a survival rate of 31.9%. Preoperative variables predictive of greater risk of total mortality were: digoxin usage, multivessel disease, poor quality of left ventricular function, age at operation, electrocardiographic evidence of myocardial infarction, previous stroke, diabetes, heart failure, diuretic usage, cigarette smoking, and residual ungrafted coronary artery disease. The major determinants of long-term survival were variables associated with preoperative left ventricular function. Diabetes was the only important metabolic risk factor identified. This study suggests that unfavorable preoperative conventional risk factors should not be considered a contraindication to operation in patients with adequate coronary anatomy and left ventricular function.

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