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The Annals of Thoracic Surgery, Vol 40, 224-228, Copyright © 1985 by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons
J Miholic, M Hudec, E Domanig, H Hiertz, W Klepetko, F Lackner and E Wolner
Risk factors for severe bacterial infections, that is, deep sternal wound
infection, pneumonia, septicemia, and prosthetic valve endocarditis, were
evaluated in 246 consecutive patients undergoing valve replacement (N = 84)
or aortocoronary bypass operation (N = 162). Multiple logistic regression
analysis was applied to determine the ability of putative risk factors to
predict infection. The risk factors considered were age, sex, diabetes
mellitus, duration of cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), duration of operation,
amount of blood restored on the day of operation, repeat thoracotomy for
bleeding, intraaortic balloon pumping, reoperation, emergency operation,
and the professional status of the surgeon. Severe infections occurred in
similar frequency after valve replacement (8/84; 9.5%) and aortocoronary
bypass (11/162; 6.8%). For patients who had a bypass procedure, repeat
thoracotomy was the only factor significantly associated with infection (p
= 0.0004). However, the classification analysis revealed that this variable
alone is too unspecific for a reliable prediction. Univariate analysis
indicated that restoration of more than 2,500 ml of blood (p = 0.0001),
reoperation (p = 0.0821), duration of operation (p = 0.0061), duration of
CPB (p = 0.0318), and intraaortic balloon pumping (p = 0.0281) were
associated with infection following valve replacement. A model with three
variables emerged from the multiple logistic regression: after correction
for blood restoration, reoperation, and duration of CPB, no other variable
was of additional predictive value. For patients who underwent valve
replacement, the model performed well in predicting complications. The
classification analysis revealed a high correspondence between observed and
predicted instances of infection: it correctly predicted 75% of the
patients with infection and 96% of those without infection.(ABSTRACT
TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
ARTICLES
Risk factors for severe bacterial infections after valve replacement and aortocoronary bypass operations: analysis of 246 cases by logistic regression
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