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The Annals of Thoracic Surgery, Vol 20, 289-298, Copyright © 1975 by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons

ARTICLES

An improved statistical method for assessing the results of operation

GL Grunkemeier, LE Lambert, LI Bonchek and A Starr

The advantages of the acturarial method of analyzing postoperative survival are now widely accepted. In evaluating the late results of heart valve replacement operations, however, certain nonfatal complications must also be considered. The use of individual event-free rates does not portray individual risk, since some valves have multiple complications. By using cummulative complication-free rates, however, it is possible to estimate the percentage of valves active and free from certain major complications for each postoperative interval. A series of actuarial curves is used, each of which represents a different major complication. These curves are subtracted progressively from the total of valves at risk, and an acturial representation of complication-free survival results.

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